Robertson, a senior research scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, will create the world’s first multi-model global probabilistic forecasting system for routine sub-seasonal weather and climate fluctuations (about a week to a month ahead, issued every week), tailored to societal impacts (floods, droughts, heat and cold waves, wind speeds).
This project will benefit society by providing early warning for early action in the intermediate time range between existing weather and seasonal climate forecasts; it will fill the gap between weather and climate where many sectorial decisions arise in adapting to changing climate impacts on life’s essential resources. The system will use publicly accessible forecasts from U.S. and Canadian operational forecasting centers, combined and calibrated with established regression methodologies. The forecasts of precipitation, temperature and wind speed, will bridge between daily weather and seasonal climate using a “seamless” use-informed forecast scaling paradigm that relaxes the space-time specificity at longer forecast lead time, harmonizing the user and physical considerations.
The project will help answer important scientific questions on what can be predicted — where and when — at the boundary between weather and climate, and how highly technical probabilistic forecast information can be simplified and tailored to inform people’s needs in the real world.